Cloud River Urban Research Institute
Editor’s note:
Why are the major social rankings of the China Integrated City Index 2022 dominated by Chinese core cities? Which megalopolises have entered an aging society? Which megalopolises have the most medical resources in China? Which megalopolises have the most vigorous consumer spending in China? In the social rankings of the China Integrated City Index 2022, Cloud River Urban Research Institute has utilized a series of social data to analyze the demographics and social functions of 19 megalopolises in China.
1. Core cities dominate top 10 social rankings
The top 10 cities in the social rankings of the China Integrated City Index 2022 (hereinafter referred to as Index) are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Xi’an, and Wuhan, all of which are core cities in a region or in China. Moreover, among the top 22 cities, except Suzhou at 12th, all others are core cities.
Ming Xiaodong, former first-level inspector of the Department of Development Planning of the National Development and Reform Commission and former minister-counsellor of the Chinese Embassy in Japan, commented, “The social rankings of the Index reflect the level of social development of a city. This is the first time I have observed that social development grows in tandem with the economy and population through objective data. Among the top 20 cities, there are 12 in eastern China, four in central China, and four in western China. Among them, there are 14 cities in southern China and six in northern China. Eastern China contributes most to China’s economy, central China comes at second, and western China third. Furthermore, the economy of southern China is better than that of northern China. Similarly, population mostly concentrates in China’s southern part, with a south-north population ratio of 4:3. Therefore, the 2022 social rankings show that China’s social undertakings are highly correlated with its economic development and population. As China’s economy develops in tandem with its society, the distribution of social services becomes more rational and balanced.”
The social rankings consist of three subcategories, namely status and governance, inheritance and communication, and life quality, and includes nine items, namely city status, population quality, social management, historical heritage, cultural and entertainment, communication, living environment, consumption level, and life services, totaling 199 data sets. This article focuses on analyzing social performances of 19 megalopolises.
This article focuses on analyzing the social performance of the 19 megalopolises in 2022. Using box plots and overlaid bee swarm plots, the article presents the distribution and degree of deviation in the social rankings of 223 cities at or above the prefectural level in the 19 megalopolises. Only the Pearl River Delta has its median value above the national average, while the other 18 megalopolises below the national average.
Professor Zhou Muzhi at Cloud River Urban Research Institute pointed out, “This phenomenon indicates a significant concentration of administrative resources, medical services, higher education, communication, culture and entertainment, as well as other social functions in central cities. It leads to a notable dependence of non-core cities on core cities when it comes to social functions, with the gap between non-core cities and core cities widening. This is a phenomenon that deserves attention.”
2. An aged society on the horizon
In 2022, eight megalopolises in China experienced negative population growth, including central and southern parts of Liaoning, the Harbin-Changchun region, the Chengdu-Chongqing region, the Yangtze River Delta, Central Shanxi, the Guanzhong Plains, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and Central Plains. Central and southern parts of Liaoning and the Harbin-Changchun region suffered particularly severe declines in population, with their populations shrinking in the 2015-2022 period on an average basis. This indicates that a declining birthrate is a significant issue that should raise concerns in China.
The Pearl River Delta witnesses the highest population growth rate, followed by central Guizhou, the Beibu Bay, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, the areas along the Yellow River in northern Ningxia, the Central Plains, the Shandong Peninsula, central Yunnan, the Lanzhou-Xining region, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Their average population growth rates over the 2015-2022 period ranged from 10.1‰ to 4.6‰.
Thanks to its highest natural population growth rate nationwide and a large influx of young people, the population aged 65 and above in the Pearl River Delta is 6.5%, the smallest proportion among the 19 megalopolises, followed by the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, the areas along the Yellow River in northern Ningxia, central Yunnan, the Beibu Bay, central Guizhou, the Lanzhou-Xining region, the Hohhot-Baotou-Erdos-Yulin region, and coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces.
In the Chengdu-Chongqing region, 17.4% of its population is at 65 or above, the highest among the 19 megalopolises, followed by central and southern parts of Liaoning, the Harbin-Changchun region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Shandong Peninsula, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, at 17.3%, 15.3%, 15.3%, 15.1%, and 14.1% respectively. Some of these megalopolises have slipped into negative natural population growth in recent years, some have had a significant dropping out of prime age adults, and the others have faced a more miserable situation, suffering both population declines and outflows of prime age adults.
Professor Zhou pointed out, the U.N. defines an “aging society” as one where people aged 65 or above constitute more than 14% of the total population. Currently, the proportion of old people in China has reached 13.7%, within a whisker of becoming an aging society.
Zhou said, the six megalopolises, including the Chengdu-Chongqing region, have already been among the first in China to enter an aging society.
3. Over half of China’s working age population clusters in first-tier and quasi-first-tier megalopolises
The first-tier megalopolises – the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region – account for 12.2%, 6.5%, and 6.2% of China’s working age population, respectively, 24.9% in total. The quasi-first-tier megalopolises, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains account for 7.2%, 8.6%, 6.6%, and 2.9% of the working age population, respectively, totaling 25.3%. The three first-tier city megalopolises and the four quasi-first-tier megalopolises combined make up 50.2% of the national total.
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region account for 13.7%, 5.8%, and 9.4% of students in general higher education institutions, respectively, 28.9% in total. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Guanzhong Plains account for 7.4%, 12.6%, 4.1%, and 3.7% of students in general higher education institutions, respectively, totaling 27.8%. The three first-tier city megalopolises and the four quasi-first-tier megalopolises combined accommodate 56.7% of China’s college students who are considered as the future high-quality workforce.
4. Medical resources highly concentrate
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are home to 13.2%, 6.5%, and 9.5% of China’s third-tier hospitals (hospitals are the most sophisticated with multiple differentiated departments in China), totaling 29.2%. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains account for 7.1%, 10.2%, 5.6%, and 3.3% of China’s third-tier hospitals, totaling 26.2%.
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are home to 13.5%, 5.2%, and 8.6% of China’s licensed (assistant) doctors, respectively, 27.3% combined. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains take 7.5%, 8.6%, 6.0%, and 3.1%, respectively, totaling 25.2%.
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region occupy 12.7%, 4.3%, and 6.4% of beds in China’s medical and healthcare institutions, respectively, 23.4% combined. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains make up 8.8%, 9.6%, 5.7%, and 3.4% of the national total, 27.5% combined.
The three first-tier megalopolises and the four quasi-first-tier megalopolises host 55.4% of the nation’s third-tier hospitals, 52.5% of licensed (assistant) doctors, and 50.9% of beds in China’s medical and healthcare institutions. China’s medical resources, especially high-level medical institutions, significantly concentrate in core cities. With premium medical resources, core cities in the first-tier and quasi-first-tier megalopolises not only serve the needs of local residents for health services but also provide high-end medical services for residents in megalopolises and even the entire country.
5. Theaters concentrate in first-tier and quasi-first tier megalopolises
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region accommodate 19.1%, 9.9%, and 6.6% of China’s theaters, respectively, 35.6% in total. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains host 8.1%, 9.3%, 6.2%, and 3.0% of the national total, 26.6% combined.
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region contribute 20.0%, 10.4%, and 7.2% of film attendances in China, respectively, 37.6% combined. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains take 8.8%, 10.1%, 6.6%, and 2.4% of China’s film attendances, totaling 27.9%.
The three first-tier megalopolises and the four quasi-first-tier megalopolises host 62.2% of China’s theaters, contribute 65.5% of China’s film attendances, and generate 66.5% of China’s box office.
6. Luxury spending soars
The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are home to 26.8%, 6.8%, and 16.6% of China’s top brand stores such as Hermes and Louis Vuitton, respectively, totaling 50.2%. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, and the Central Plains make up 9.8%, 6.3%, 2.8%, and 4.3% of China’s top brand stores, totaling 23.2%. A total of 73.4% of China’s top brand stores are located in the three first-tier megalopolises and the four quasi-first-tier megalopolises.
The Yangtze River Delta has the highest number of China’s top brand stores, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The Chengdu-Chongqing region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, central and southern parts of Liaoning, and the Central Plains also have a booming luxury market. Surprisingly, the Pearl River Delta is three percentage points lower than the Chengdu-Chongqing region in terms of the percentage of China’s top brand stores.
Professor Zhou pointed out, “In the past two decades, globalization has led to rapid growth in global wealth and the luxury market. In 2022, the global personal luxury goods market grew three times compared to 2000. In 2019, China’s share in the global personal luxury goods market reached 33%, and will probably reach 40% by 2030.”
7. Narrow gap in social development
Ming Xiaodong said, “The 19 megalopolises are the main drivers of China’s economic growth, hosting over 80% of China’s labor force, healthcare resources, and over 90% of college students and cultural facilities.”
Ming noted that the top 5 megalopolises in the social rankings are all first-tier and quasi-first-tier megalopolises, and among them, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region accommodate nearly a quarter of the nation’s labor force and nearly 30% of college students, making them the most dynamic and innovative region in China.
“The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are home to 12.6% of college students, 10.2% of third-tier hospitals, and 9.3% of cultural facilities in China, second only to the Yangtze River Delta,” Ming said, “The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are a megalopolis where education, healthcare, and cultural resources cluster, indicating that with strong development potential, quasi-first-tier megalopolises in China have surpassed some first-tier megalopolises in some areas.”
Yang Weimin, former deputy director of the Office of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs of China, concluded, “The social rankings of the Index provide a comprehensive evaluation of social development of Chinese cities and megalopolises and indicate that social development is the result of economic development, but it is also influenced by human, historical, regional, and ethnic factors, among others.”
Yang said, social and economic development is not always linear, adding that China’s development is people-centered, as its economic development ultimately aims to improve people’s living standards.
Yang said, “The evaluation of the social rankings to some extent reflects the living conditions and consumption potential of megalopolises. The fact that 75% of top brand stores cluster in first-tier and quasi-first-tier megalopolises indicates that middle and high-income groups with strong purchasing power are concentrated in these megalopolises.”
“The movie attendance in first-tier and quasi-first-tier megalopolises accounts for two-thirds of the national total, indicating that residents in these megalopolises earn more and crave more cultural activities.”
Yang explained that this reflects the significant disparities in social development among Chinese megalopolises. “These disparities provide potential for China as a super-large economy. China not only needs to narrow the economic gap between regions and cities but also needs to narrow the gap in social development,” he asserted.
The article was first published on China Daily, China.org.cn on Jan. 22, 2024 and reprinted by other news websites.